tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2790 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:40 MSY 10:14 10% 2% 0.8% 86%
DL 1652 Delta Flight history → DTW 14:19 MSY 15:49 17% 4% 0.9% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581 1h 00m Nashville BNA 08:05 → MSY 09:40WN 594 4h 10m 96% 90%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 7h 20m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 7h 20m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20WN 4534 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 09:25 → MSY 11:05WN 4692 6h 15m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02DL 1163 2h 18m Boston BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398 7h 51m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:45 → ORD 07:30AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Chicago ORD 09:30 → MSY 12:05AA 4748 · flown by Republic 6h 20m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426 2h 36m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DTW 13:25 → MDW 13:35WN 507 50m Chicago MDW 14:25 → MSY 16:40WN 3743 4h 15m 70% 56%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782 1h 00m Chicago MDW 21:40 → MSY 23:55WN 2836 4h 25m 66% 44%
AmericanDetails → DTW 19:51 → DFW 21:44AA 1786 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → MSY 23:58AA 1472 5h 07m 68% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON