Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3483 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 3483 DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1084 DTW 17:58 → ORD 18:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 05:30	ORD 05:53	7%	3%	1.3%	85%
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 11:00	ORD 11:29	11%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 4103 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 10:25	ORD 11:00	11%	4%	1.2%	94%
DL 3673 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:10	ORD 10:37	12%	6%	1.1%	90%
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 06:45	ORD 07:30	12%	4%	1.0%	80%
UA 5553 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 07:05	ORD 07:42	15%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	DTW 08:50	ORD 09:22	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:03	16%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 13:34	ORD 14:07	16%	5%	1.1%	80%
DL 4456 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 07:30	ORD 07:59	18%	5%	1.0%	79%
AA 3500 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 21:20	ORD 21:57	18%	5%	1.5%	72%
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	20%	9%	1.0%	71%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 18:11	ORD 18:58	21%	5%	1.3%	81%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	22%	7%	1.0%	76%
UA 5483 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 19:22	ORD 19:59	23%	9%	1.2%	50%
UA 5264 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 18:20	ORD 18:57	25%	9%	1.2%	70%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	33%	8%	0.9%	66%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	ORD 18:29	33%	8%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON