Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:54	PDX 10:36	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 913 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:04	PDX 21:48	18%	4%	0.7%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	8h 37m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3229	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	8h 10m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778	1h 15m Denver	DEN 07:45 → PDX 09:25WN 300	7h 00m	97%	89%
United Details →	DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994	9h 08m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	8h 10m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 15m	99%	87%
United Details →	DTW 06:15 → IAH 08:11UA 1229	1h 19m Houston	IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740	8h 41m	100%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313	52m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	71%	58%
United Details →	DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest	58m Chicago	ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738	7h 10m	71%	56%
Southwest Details →	DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782	55m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → PDX 23:55WN 2852	6h 25m	60%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON