Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2968 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2968 DTW 07:05 → PHL 08:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2022 DTW 13:50 → PHL 15:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	PHL 08:41	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 5170 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:10	PHL 07:56	6%	3%	1.2%	88%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:10	PHL 11:46	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2402 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	PHL 23:16	14%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 5167 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 19:17	PHL 21:02	14%	7%	1.7%	75%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:00	PHL 16:43	15%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 5427 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 16:26	PHL 18:15	17%	8%	1.4%	48%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	PHL 19:25	17%	5%	0.7%	72%
F9 2022 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:50	PHL 15:29	31%	14%	0.9%	59%
AA 5876 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:52	PHL 12:42	5%	0%	0.0%	95%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON