Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1070 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1070 DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 4671 DTW 19:44 → PHX 20:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	PHX 09:44	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 3141 American Flight history →	DTW 08:11	PHX 09:24	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 813 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:47	PHX 13:50	17%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 1135 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:50	PHX 17:55	20%	6%	0.6%	67%
AA 1790 American Flight history →	DTW 17:57	PHX 19:08	21%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 2076 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:44	PHX 21:48	24%	7%	0.7%	74%
F9 4671 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 19:44	PHX 20:53	27%	10%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON