Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3961 DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4040 DTW 14:15 → PVD 16:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3961 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:05	PVD 12:03	10%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 3795 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 21:30	PVD 23:36	12%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 4040 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:15	PVD 16:13	16%	6%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON