tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 426 Delta Flight history → DTW 10:00 PWM 11:55 10% 3% 0.6% 92%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history → DTW 14:05 PWM 16:01 12% 3% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20WN 4534 3h 30m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → PWM 12:20WN 1065 6h 30m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 7h 43m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47AA 4477 · flown by Republic 1h 23m New York LGA 09:10 → PWM 10:33AA 4502 · flown by Republic 4h 33m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → DTW 09:14 → EWR 11:07UA 3409 · flown by Republic 52m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 4h 11m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:10 → PHL 07:56AA 5170 · flown by PSA 54m Philadelphia PHL 08:50 → PWM 10:31AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont 4h 21m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:35 → IAD 16:11UA 6190 · flown by Mesa 1h 19m Dulles IAD 17:30 → PWM 19:27UA 3651 · flown by Republic 4h 52m 90% 81%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → PWM 17:54DL 488 7h 29m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:41 → DCA 08:31AA 5244 · flown by PSA 2h 02m Washington DCA 10:33 → PWM 12:11AA 344 5h 30m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa 50m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51UA 2064 4h 06m 72% 59%
DeltaDetails → DTW 20:10 → JFK 22:12DL 1316 47m New York JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor 4h 42m 73% 54%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 47m New York JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 4h 05m 73% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON