Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1427 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1427 DTW 07:05 → RDU 08:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2839 DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	RDU 08:48	6%	3%	0.8%	94%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	RDU 11:57	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:02	RDU 17:47	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 2839 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	RDU 23:25	17%	4%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON