Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 492 DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 700 DTW 20:23 → SAN 22:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 492 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAN 10:27	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2155 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:30	SAN 14:09	17%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 369 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	SAN 18:14	22%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 700 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:23	SAN 22:01	25%	5%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:15WN 659	6h 45m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 37m	91%	80%
Southwest Details →	DTW 08:40 → MDW 08:55WN 1781	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → SAN 12:10WN 4648	6h 30m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON