Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 788 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 788 DTW 08:25 → SAT 10:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1365 DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 788 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	SAT 10:34	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2458 Delta Flight history →	DTW 13:41	SAT 15:51	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 1365 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:15	SAT 22:22	26%	7%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON