Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 814 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 814 DTW 06:00 → SEA 07:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 313 DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 814 Delta Flight history →	DTW 06:00	SEA 07:53	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
AS 344 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 07:01	SEA 09:00	15%	3%	0.6%	71%
DL 728 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:29	SEA 14:29	16%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 734 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	SEA 10:34	16%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 944 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:46	SEA 18:42	18%	5%	0.6%	72%
DL 565 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:34	SEA 22:33	23%	5%	0.6%	64%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 17:31	SEA 19:33	23%	5%	0.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 00m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 58m	95%	85%
United Details →	DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40UA 341	7h 10m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON