Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1550 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1550 DTW 06:34 → SFO 08:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest DL 1327 DTW 20:37 → SFO 22:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1550 United Flight history →	DTW 06:34	SFO 08:40	14%	3%	0.6%	61%
DL 361 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	SFO 10:27	19%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 1863 United Flight history →	DTW 17:29	SFO 19:40	20%	7%	0.6%	61%
DL 469 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	SFO 14:17	22%	6%	0.6%	70%
DL 442 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:17	SFO 18:14	25%	7%	0.6%	69%
DL 509 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:55	SFO 20:55	32%	11%	0.6%	55%
DL 1327 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:37	SFO 22:35	32%	9%	0.6%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	7h 09m	94%	78%
Southwest Details →	DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778	1h 15m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SFO 09:25WN 2386	7h 00m	97%	72%
United Details →	DTW 08:50 → ORD 09:22UA 1338	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543	7h 24m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON