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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:17, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1913 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:35 SJU 13:11 12% 3% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 9h 14m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 8h 15m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor 3h 45m New York JFK 12:45 → SJU 16:38DL 1961 9h 35m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:40 → IAH 20:50UA 4032 · flown by Mesa 3h 06m Houston IAH 23:56 → SJU 05:29 +1UA 1497 10h 49m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20WN 4534 50m Baltimore BWI 08:10 → SJU 12:25WN 4443 6h 35m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 9h 19m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:15 → IAH 08:11UA 1229 1h 52m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 27m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → MIA 09:06AA 1020 2h 11m Miami MIA 11:17 → SJU 14:12AA 2584 8h 12m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 47m New York JFK 12:45 → SJU 16:38DL 1961 6h 24m 73% 63%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 17:45 → BWI 19:15WN 1526 55m Baltimore BWI 20:10 → SJU 00:20 +1WN 1104 6h 35m 72% 50%
JetBlueDetails → DTW 19:20 → BOS 21:16B6 1136 55m Boston BOS 22:11 → SJU 02:11 +1B6 561 6h 51m 69% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON