Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3229 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3229 DTW 07:00 → SLC 08:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 2117 DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3229 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	SLC 08:53	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 698 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	SLC 10:21	9%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 935 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	SLC 14:11	13%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 765 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	SLC 19:34	18%	4%	0.5%	78%
DL 2117 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:20	SLC 22:15	23%	4%	0.5%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DTW 08:40 → MDW 08:55WN 1781	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951	5h 45m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON