tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1857 Delta Flight history → DTW 09:25 SNA 11:05 16% 4% 0.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778 1h 20m Denver DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15WN 1745 6h 50m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic 2h 47m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 8h 51m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:15 → IAH 08:11UA 1229 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 44m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 08:00 → DEN 09:14UA 1846 2h 06m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 51m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 53m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 3h 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 9h 29m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DTW 09:14 → EWR 11:07UA 3409 · flown by Republic 3h 22m Newark EWR 14:29 → SNA 17:18UA 1350 11h 04m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 05:37 → DFW 07:32AA 1108 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → SNA 10:48AA 2672 8h 11m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest 48m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 6h 59m 55% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON