Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3965 DTW 16:02 → TVC 17:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest DL 2424 DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3965 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:02	TVC 17:15	20%	8%	0.8%	66%
DL 3976 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 12:15	TVC 13:27	21%	8%	0.8%	68%
DL 2424 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:59	TVC 00:08	21%	6%	0.7%	77%
DL 4721 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:30	TVC 09:45	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON