Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 15:57	XNA 17:19	34%	15%	0.0%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → XNA 10:39UA 5407 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	100%	87%
American Details →	DTW 05:37 → DFW 07:32AA 1108	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy	5h 47m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → XNA 11:08DL 3536 · flown by SkyWest	5h 07m	95%	86%
United Details →	DTW 06:15 → IAH 08:11UA 1229	1h 24m Houston	IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 57m	100%	86%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy	6h 59m	98%	85%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 11:44 → XNA 13:12AA 5444 · flown by PSA	8h 12m	98%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:10 → PHL 07:56AA 5170 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	7h 21m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 13:51 → XNA 14:44DL 4442 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 19:51 → DFW 21:44AA 1786	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	4h 56m	68%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON