Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3114 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3114 ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2823 ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3114 Delta Flight history →	ECP 06:00	ATL 08:13	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 1674 Delta Flight history →	ECP 07:50	ATL 10:00	9%	4%	0.8%	92%
DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ECP 09:12	ATL 11:20	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ECP 11:38	ATL 13:51	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ECP 17:03	ATL 19:21	16%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 1359 Delta Flight history →	ECP 13:36	ATL 15:50	18%	5%	1.4%	84%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ECP 18:48	ATL 21:07	20%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ECP 14:47	ATL 17:00	20%	6%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON