Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 15:55	AUS 18:13	21%	9%	0.8%	80%
WN 1784 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 14:55	AUS 17:00	26%	9%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727	6h 05m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	2h 15m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450	5h 50m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	ECP 06:55 → DAL 08:50WN 1787	2h 15m Dallas	DAL 11:05 → AUS 12:05WN 930	5h 10m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	97%	83%
American Details →	ECP 07:28 → DFW 09:50AA 1381	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	6h 04m	98%	82%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 37m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	6h 42m	99%	81%
American Details →	ECP 10:06 → DFW 12:23AA 3503 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:16 → AUS 16:21AA 3400 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 08m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	4h 20m	73%	55%
American Details →	ECP 13:17 → PHL 16:48AA 5173 · flown by PSA	51m Philadelphia	PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30AA 1314	7h 13m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON