Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5175 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 5175 ECP 07:05 → CLT 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3552 ECP 16:17 → CLT 19:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 07:05	CLT 09:59	7%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 5179 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 11:00	CLT 13:46	14%	5%	1.0%	83%
AA 5178 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 18:54	CLT 21:45	20%	7%	1.3%	56%
AA 3552 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 16:17	CLT 19:04	21%	7%	1.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON