tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5617 at 11:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5617 American flown by PSA Flight history → ECP 11:55 DCA 15:19 19% 7% 2.1% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 4h 27m 94% 83%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785 2h 00m Nashville BNA 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 4562 5h 10m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:47 → DCA 13:57UA 2670 6h 27m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:05 → CLT 09:59AA 5175 · flown by PSA 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA 4h 54m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 06m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50UA 5654 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 7h 49m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:28 → DFW 09:50AA 1381 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 31m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180 2h 50m Chicago MDW 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 1294 6h 50m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ECP 11:00 → CLT 13:46AA 5179 · flown by PSA 48m Charlotte CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839 4h 13m 74% 54%
UnitedDetails → ECP 10:25 → ORD 13:09UA 5874 · flown by SkyWest 51m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 5h 47m 54% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON