Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2176 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 14:55	DEN 17:10	25%	7%	0.6%	38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	6h 20m	100%	89%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 03m Houston	IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409	6h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50UA 5654 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767	8h 56m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	2h 25m Nashville	BNA 11:40 → DEN 13:25WN 500	6h 35m	100%	84%
United Details →	ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 00m Houston	IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066	7h 52m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706	8h 00m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 10m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	ECP 06:55 → DAL 08:50WN 1787	55m Dallas	DAL 09:45 → DEN 10:45WN 1300	4h 50m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 12m Houston	IAH 20:22 → DEN 22:15UA 2339	6h 10m	74%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON