Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1381 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1381 ECP 07:28 → DFW 09:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5651 ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1381 American Flight history →	ECP 07:28	DFW 09:50	10%	5%	1.3%	90%
AA 3503 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 10:06	DFW 12:23	10%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 3502 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 16:51	DFW 19:09	14%	5%	1.3%	54%
AA 5185 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 12:25	DFW 14:38	15%	6%	2.1%	74%
OH 5105 PSA	ECP 15:04	DFW 17:19	17%	8%	2.5%	no record
AA 5651 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 18:56	DFW 21:13	24%	11%	3.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON