Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 510 at 10:15, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 510 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 10:15	HOU 12:00	12%	3%	1.7%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	6h 40m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	ECP 06:55 → DAL 08:50WN 1787	1h 40m Dallas	DAL 10:30 → HOU 11:45WN 23	4h 50m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	2h 25m Nashville	BNA 11:40 → HOU 13:40WN 5055	5h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 10m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 10m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 04m	99%	76%
American Details →	ECP 10:06 → DFW 12:23AA 3503 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	ECP 13:25 → STL 15:15WN 1790	2h 25m St Louis	STL 17:40 → HOU 19:45WN 5065	6h 20m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON