tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180 1h 25m Chicago MDW 09:50 → LGA 12:55WN 4044 5h 45m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 00m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 38m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785 3h 20m Nashville BNA 12:35 → LGA 15:55WN 4731 7h 05m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 37m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 32m Houston IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44UA 2181 9h 14m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:05 → CLT 09:59AA 5175 · flown by PSA 1h 40m Charlotte CLT 11:39 → LGA 13:35AA 2033 5h 30m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ECP 10:25 → ORD 13:09UA 5874 · flown by SkyWest 51m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 5h 57m 54% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON