Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1788 at 11:30, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1788 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 11:30	MCI 13:45	14%	3%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	3h 15m Nashville	BNA 12:30 → MCI 14:10WN 5063	6h 20m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529	5h 35m	100%	88%
American Details →	ECP 15:36 → ORD 18:38AA 4534 · flown by Republic	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → MCI 00:19 +1AA 3695 · flown by Envoy	8h 43m	100%	85%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 37m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	7h 45m	99%	85%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa	3h 38m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa	7h 47m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	6h 39m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	6h 13m	97%	84%
United Details →	ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50UA 5654 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 20:05 → MCI 21:54UA 1851	7h 49m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON