Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4180 at 06:10, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4180 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 06:10	MDW 08:25	3%	1%	0.8%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	4h 30m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	ECP 06:55 → DAL 08:50WN 1787	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	5h 25m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 56m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 03m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	ECP 11:30 → MCI 13:45WN 1788	2h 20m Kansas City	MCI 16:05 → MDW 17:30WN 9	6h 00m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	ECP 12:00 → BNA 13:25WN 3032	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	5h 50m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	ECP 10:15 → HOU 12:00WN 510	1h 30m Houston	HOU 13:30 → MDW 15:55WN 2041	5h 40m	95%	74%
Southwest Details →	ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 578	5h 50m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON