Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5874 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 5874 ECP 10:25 → ORD 13:09 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 5654 ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5874 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 10:25	ORD 13:09	17%	7%	1.1%	88%
AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ECP 15:36	ORD 18:38	20%	6%	0.9%	81%
UA 5654 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 14:05	ORD 16:50	27%	11%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON