Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5173 at 13:17, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5173 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 13:17	PHL 16:48	29%	10%	3.3%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 24m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:20WN 623	4h 30m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 12m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169	7h 00m	99%	80%
American Details →	ECP 07:05 → CLT 09:59AA 5175 · flown by PSA	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 45m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 56m	98%	79%
American Details →	ECP 16:17 → CLT 19:04AA 3552 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	7h 05m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	ECP 13:36 → ATL 15:50DL 1359	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 44m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON