Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1790 at 13:25, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1790 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 13:25	STL 15:15	16%	5%	1.3%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:10 → MDW 08:25WN 4180	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	6h 00m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 17m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	5h 36m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	ECP 07:50 → BNA 09:15WN 1785	3h 50m Nashville	BNA 13:05 → STL 14:20WN 1371	6h 30m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 50m	99%	82%
United Details →	ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50UA 5654 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 19:55 → STL 21:26UA 2144	7h 21m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 15m	98%	80%
American Details →	ECP 07:05 → CLT 09:59AA 5175 · flown by PSA	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717	4h 50m	93%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13AA 5651 · flown by PSA	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 00:04 +1AA 3049	5h 08m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON