tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1741 Delta Flight history → ELP 06:00 ATL 11:10 5% 2% 0.6% 92%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ELP 14:25 ATL 19:42 14% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:00 → DAL 07:50WN 4458 1h 40m Dallas DAL 09:30 → ATL 12:35WN 1766 5h 35m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55WN 3958 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 08:25 → ATL 15:25WN 4482 7h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → ORD 12:27UA 5659 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356 7h 10m 95% 80%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 07:40 → MDW 11:35WN 1813 3h 05m Chicago MDW 14:40 → ATL 17:35WN 4592 7h 55m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 1h 07m Denver DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424 6h 09m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → ATL 15:16UA 4079 · flown by Mesa 7h 31m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:01 → DFW 07:50AA 1959 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:34 → ATL 12:46AA 1358 5h 45m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → DFW 08:50AA 1091 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → ATL 14:10AA 1386 6h 09m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ELP 19:16 → SEA 21:59AS 2191 · flown by Horizon 1h 32m Seattle SEA 23:31 → ATL 07:24 +1AS 464 10h 08m 69% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON