Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1791 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1791 ELP 05:10 → AUS 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1793 ELP 21:40 → AUS 00:20 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1791 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 05:10	AUS 07:45	3%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 4856 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 12:20	AUS 14:55	20%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 1793 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 21:40	AUS 00:20	32%	10%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON