Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4458 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4458 ELP 05:00 → DAL 07:50 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1795 ELP 18:15 → DAL 21:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4458 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 05:00	DAL 07:50	2%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 4741 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 07:20	DAL 10:05	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 1794 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 10:50	DAL 13:40	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 1269 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 14:30	DAL 17:20	18%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 1795 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 18:15	DAL 21:05	27%	7%	0.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON