Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3706 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3706 ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1798 ELP 16:30 → DEN 18:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3706 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 05:20	DEN 07:05	3%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 4332 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 09:05	DEN 10:55	9%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 724 United Flight history →	ELP 07:00	DEN 08:53	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	21%	7%	0.6%	79%
F9 4418 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 18:59	DEN 21:00	27%	10%	0.7%	77%
WN 1798 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 16:30	DEN 18:20	36%	8%	0.5%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON