Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1959 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1959 ELP 05:01 → DFW 07:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 1802 ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1959 American Flight history →	ELP 05:01	DFW 07:50	8%	4%	1.0%	82%
AA 1091 American Flight history →	ELP 06:01	DFW 08:50	9%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 2029 American Flight history →	ELP 07:05	DFW 10:00	14%	5%	0.9%	87%
AA 3506 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 13:41	DFW 16:33	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	ELP 10:04	DFW 12:54	16%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 3504 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 17:32	DFW 20:27	18%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 2210 American Flight history →	ELP 12:07	DFW 15:02	20%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 1802 American Flight history →	ELP 16:19	DFW 19:15	27%	10%	1.1%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON