Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3958 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3958 ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1808 ELP 19:45 → LAS 20:30 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3958 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 06:10	LAS 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 4335 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 11:10	LAS 12:00	20%	4%	0.6%	79%
F9 3449 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 20:14	LAS 21:08	34%	13%	1.3%	74%
WN 1808 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 19:45	LAS 20:30	42%	11%	0.6%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON