Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4910 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4910 ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4992 ELP 22:15 → LAX 23:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4910 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 06:01	LAX 07:14	6%	3%	0.7%	96%
WN 4582 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 07:10	LAX 08:15	11%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 4977 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 12:05	LAX 13:20	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
WN 4992 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 22:15	LAX 23:25	32%	11%	0.6%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON