Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1813 at 07:40, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1813 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 07:40	MDW 11:35	5%	1%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55WN 3958	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	6h 45m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	ELP 05:10 → AUS 07:45WN 1791	2h 40m Austin	AUS 10:25 → MDW 12:55WN 4077	6h 45m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05WN 3706	2h 55m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	7h 05m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	ELP 05:00 → DAL 07:50WN 4458	2h 15m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	6h 20m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	ELP 06:35 → PHX 06:55WN 4224	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:00 → MDW 15:15WN 4066	7h 40m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	ELP 05:45 → HOU 08:40WN 4702	2h 40m Houston	HOU 11:20 → MDW 13:45WN 1019	7h 00m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	ELP 09:05 → DEN 10:55WN 4332	2h 05m Denver	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	6h 15m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	ELP 07:20 → DAL 10:05WN 4741	4h 00m Dallas	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	8h 00m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:40 → HOU 19:45WN 3320	50m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05WN 2044	5h 25m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON