Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3872 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 06:49	ORD 11:10	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 5659 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 08:00	ORD 12:27	13%	6%	1.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:51UA 2827	8h 06m	99%	86%
United Details →	ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 58m Houston	IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752	7h 45m	100%	86%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	3h 39m Houston	IAH 13:41 → ORD 16:39UA 2458	8h 39m	100%	85%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 55m	95%	81%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	3h 02m Denver	DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085	7h 47m	97%	79%
United Details →	ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa	3h 23m Houston	IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699	8h 22m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	7h 14m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	8h 28m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON