Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4224 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4224 ELP 06:35 → PHX 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3800 ELP 21:30 → PHX 21:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4224 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 06:35	PHX 06:55	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
AA 3882 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 05:49	PHX 06:15	8%	3%	0.7%	96%
WN 1201 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 10:15	PHX 10:35	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 4978 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 11:47	PHX 12:14	15%	8%	0.7%	84%
WN 4823 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 16:25	PHX 16:45	32%	9%	0.6%	44%
AA 2423 American Flight history →	ELP 19:07	PHX 19:34	33%	12%	0.7%	68%
WN 3800 Southwest	ELP 21:30	PHX 21:55	38%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON