tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1823 at 19:50, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1823 Southwest Flight history → ELP 19:50 SAN 20:40 41% 10% 0.6% 12%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05WN 3706 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 5h 20m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:10 → AUS 07:45WN 1791 2h 20m Austin AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435 6h 45m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa 1h 58m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 7h 21m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:35 → PHX 06:55WN 4224 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 07:55 → SAN 09:10WN 2771 3h 35m 96% 79%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55WN 3958 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → SAN 09:55WN 2121 4h 45m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:49 → PHX 06:15AA 3882 · flown by Envoy 1h 19m Phoenix PHX 07:34 → SAN 08:51AA 2461 4h 02m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 22m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 95% 73%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 07:20 → DAL 10:05WN 4741 1h 45m Dallas DAL 11:50 → SAN 12:45WN 1394 6h 25m 96% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 53m Houston IAH 20:03 → SAN 21:24UA 2407 6h 24m 59% 44%
AmericanDetails → ELP 19:07 → PHX 19:34AA 2423 46m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 3h 27m 52% 33%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 19:45 → LAS 20:30WN 1808 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 21:30 → SAN 22:45WN 1227 4h 00m 58% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON