tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1826 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1826 Southwest Flight history → ELP 06:00 SAT 08:30 2% 1% 0.6% 98%
WN 296 Southwest Flight history → ELP 22:25 SAT 00:55 27% 13% 0.7% 48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:00 → DAL 07:50WN 4458 2h 00m Dallas DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617 4h 55m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05WN 3706 2h 15m Denver DEN 09:20 → SAT 12:25WN 3149 6h 05m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:35 → PHX 06:55WN 4224 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05WN 4081 4h 30m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → DFW 08:50AA 1091 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:01 → SAT 13:11AA 4084 · flown by Envoy 6h 10m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 38m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:49 → PHX 06:15AA 3882 · flown by Envoy 3h 31m Phoenix PHX 09:46 → SAT 14:03AA 450 7h 14m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:01 → DFW 07:50AA 1959 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 5h 51m 95% 82%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55WN 3958 3h 25m Las Vegas LAS 10:20 → SAT 15:00WN 2333 7h 50m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Houston IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542 4h 13m 60% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON