tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2191 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ELP 19:16 SEA 21:59 46% 22% 13.5% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 9h 50m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 7h 21m 96% 78%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 06:35 → PHX 06:55WN 4224 3h 50m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → SEA 13:50WN 814 8h 15m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:49 → PHX 06:15AA 3882 · flown by Envoy 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:36AA 3793 · flown by Envoy 5h 47m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 11:47 → PHX 12:14AA 4978 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Phoenix PHX 14:35 → SEA 17:44AA 4035 · flown by Envoy 6h 57m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 1h 14m Houston IAH 10:00 → SEA 12:47UA 2205 8h 02m 96% 76%
SouthwestDetails → ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05WN 3706 3h 00m Denver DEN 10:05 → SEA 12:05WN 3051 7h 45m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → DFW 08:50AA 1091 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → SEA 13:03AA 717 8h 02m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15AA 1802 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → SEA 22:26AA 2003 7h 07m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON