tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3260 at 19:35, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3260 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → EUG 19:35 BUR 21:49 23% 9% 0.9% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → EUG 05:10 → SMF 06:30WN 1840 2h 30m Sacramento SMF 09:00 → BUR 10:15WN 3764 5h 05m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 58m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 3h 57m 93% 81%
SouthwestDetails → EUG 06:10 → DEN 09:40WN 1828 2h 05m Denver DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579 7h 10m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Portland PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18AS 559 4h 18m 92% 77%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 12:34 → PDX 13:26AS 3062 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Portland PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386 4h 39m 91% 76%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 2h 35m Seattle SEA 09:43 → BUR 12:23AS 426 6h 23m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → EUG 16:55 → LAS 18:55WN 4267 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 19:55 → BUR 21:10WN 2202 4h 15m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON