tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4267 at 16:55, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4267 Southwest Flight history → EUG 16:55 LAS 18:55 25% 11% 0.6% 27%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 31m Portland PDX 07:37 → LAS 09:55AS 627 4h 35m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 45m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 08:42 → LAS 10:28UA 2382 4h 28m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Seattle SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905 6h 10m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 01m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → EUG 06:10 → DEN 09:40WN 1828 1h 20m Denver DEN 11:00 → LAS 11:55WN 1561 5h 45m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → EUG 06:13 → PHX 08:52AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 1h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:24 → LAS 11:37AA 2037 5h 24m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → EUG 13:07 → DEN 16:42UA 1942 2h 23m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 7h 01m 95% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON