tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3324 at 08:18, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3324 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → EUG 08:18 LAX 10:45 13% 5% 0.7% 92%
AS 2323 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record EUG 12:55 LAX 15:11 21% 4% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 54m Portland PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581 4h 17m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → EUG 05:10 → SMF 06:30WN 1840 3h 35m Sacramento SMF 10:05 → LAX 11:35WN 1738 6h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 27m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 1h 25m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → LAX 10:34UA 1896 4h 34m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → EUG 06:13 → PHX 08:52AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 1h 44m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 5h 53m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 2h 55m Seattle SEA 10:03 → LAX 12:56AS 1367 6h 56m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 4h 06m 57% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON