Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1357 United Flight history →	EUG 12:50	ORD 19:00	28%	9%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Eugene). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	2h 38m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	7h 55m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	54m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	5h 53m	98%	82%
United Details →	EUG 13:07 → DEN 16:42UA 1942	2h 58m Denver	DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085	8h 12m	95%	78%
United Details →	EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077	2h 59m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1375	9h 00m	97%	76%
United Details →	EUG 18:49 → SFO 20:36UA 4662 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m San Francisco	SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368	9h 08m	93%	75%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	6h 46m	98%	75%
American Details →	EUG 06:13 → PHX 08:52AA 4048 · flown by Envoy	1h 23m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252	7h 59m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	EUG 12:32 → SEA 13:58DL 4139 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	9h 06m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077	46m San Francisco	SFO 16:21 → ORD 22:59UA 1482	7h 00m	53%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON