tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4048 American flown by Envoy Flight history → EUG 06:13 PHX 08:52 9% 3% 0.7% 91%
AA 4114 American flown by Envoy Flight history → EUG 13:39 PHX 16:16 18% 6% 0.8% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → EUG 05:10 → SMF 06:30WN 1840 1h 15m Sacramento SMF 07:45 → PHX 09:35WN 106 4h 25m 97% 88%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 54m Portland PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349 4h 29m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 12m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 48m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 6h 48m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → EUG 06:10 → DEN 09:40WN 1828 2h 55m Denver DEN 12:35 → PHX 13:30WN 1680 7h 20m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077 3h 50m San Francisco SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347 7h 40m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → EUG 14:45 → DEN 18:15WN 2843 3h 55m Denver DEN 22:10 → PHX 23:10WN 1685 8h 25m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m Seattle SEA 19:55 → PHX 22:53AS 632 5h 10m 70% 47%
UnitedDetails → EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574 4h 40m 57% 41%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 57m Seattle SEA 11:50 → PHX 14:57AS 1371 5h 12m 59% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON