Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 4128 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 4128 EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3048 EUG 19:20 → SEA 20:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4128 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 06:15	SEA 07:38	8%	4%	0.9%	94%
DL 4139 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 12:32	SEA 13:58	17%	8%	0.8%	91%
DL 4124 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 17:45	SEA 19:04	21%	7%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 3360 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 13:38	SEA 14:55	21%	9%	0.8%	87%
AS 3048 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 19:20	SEA 20:35	26%	8%	0.9%	79%
AS 2046 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 06:00	SEA 07:08	12%	2%	0.0%	88%
AS 2179 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 09:45	SEA 10:53	30%	4%	0.0%	70%
AS 2073 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 09:45	SEA 10:53	31%	3%	0.0%	69%
AS 2339 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 17:43	SEA 18:52	35%	5%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON