Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1839 at 18:40, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1839 Southwest Flight history →	EUG 18:40	SJC 20:15	21%	9%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	6h 56m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	90%	80%
Alaska Details →	EUG 12:34 → PDX 13:26AS 3062 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Portland	PDX 14:30 → SJC 16:25AS 3210 · flown by SkyWest	3h 51m	88%	79%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	92%	76%
American Details →	EUG 06:13 → PHX 08:52AA 4048 · flown by Envoy	1h 12m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → SJC 11:59AA 3325	5h 46m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2179 · flown by Horizon	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 14:18 → SJC 16:32AS 1366	6h 47m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	EUG 10:15 → SAN 12:40WN 1838	50m San Diego	SAN 13:30 → SJC 15:00WN 3538	4h 45m	72%	51%
Delta Details →	EUG 12:32 → SEA 13:58DL 4139 · flown by SkyWest	47m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	4h 33m	46%	39%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:38 → SEA 14:55AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	47m Seattle	SEA 15:42 → SJC 17:53AS 319	4h 15m	27%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON